Zvara E. & Tornyai R., 2023: Retrospective evaluation of landslides susceptibility maps for selected area of the Stará Ľubovňa district. Acta Geologica Slovaca, 15, 1, 39–46.

Retrospective evaluation of landslides susceptibility maps for selected area of the Stará Ľubovňa district

Ema Zvara & Rudolf Tornyai

Department of Engineering Geology, Hydrogeology and Applied Geophysics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Ilkovičova 6, 842 15 Bratislava; brazdova3@uniba.sk

Abstract

Landslide research has long been a primary focus for engineering geologists. In recent years, the occurrence of significant slope deformations has garnered attention due to climate change and abrupt weather fluctuations. As a result, there is a growing need for accurate prediction of landslide events that is both cost-effective and technically feasible. Quantitative statistical analyses and modelling within a Geographical Information System (GIS) have emerged as valuable methods for this purpose. Despite their widespread use, there is limited evidence regarding the effectiveness of susceptibility maps in predicting landslide locations. Most studies primarily assess the success of the prediction model itself, without evaluating whether newly occurring landslides align with the predicted areas. To address this gap, we propose a retrospective evaluation using real data. We compiled landslide hazard susceptibility maps using a dataset of registered landslides up to 2010. We then verified the accuracy of these maps using a dataset of newly registered landslides that occurred between 2010 and 2014. This approach allows for a more comprehensive assessment of the success of the compiled maps in predicting actual landslide occurrences.

Key words: landslides, susceptibility maps, multivariate analysis, retrospective evaluation, Stará Ľubovňa

Manuskript doručený: 2023-06-15

Manuskript revidovaný: 2023-06-29